Photo by: Caleb Saunders
Hot Reads: The X-Factor
November 06, 2020 09:01 AM | Football
MORGANTOWN, W.Va. - He's a scrapper. Since the first time I saw Texas quarterback Sam Ehlinger on a football field, I've appreciated how he plays the position.
It was Sept. 16, 2017. West Virginia had made quick work of Delaware State earlier in the day, giving me ample time to be on my couch with a half-emptied bag of Cheetos on my chest and plenty of Cheetle on my fingers for the second half of a primetime game on the West Coast.
For those scoring at home, "Cheetle" is that powdery, orange residue that sticks to your fingers when eating those things by the fistful. It's not quite burnt orange, but the team on my television was as Texas had traveled to the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum for a tilt with the No. 4 ranked Southern Cal Trojans. The inimitable Gus Johnson was in the booth.
The Longhorns trailed by four as the clock ticked inside one minute to play. Ehlinger took a shotgun snap from an empty set. Nothing broke open. Without missing a beat, Ehlinger kept the ball secured with both hands and broke containment, rolling toward the Trojans sideline to extend the play as he continued to scan the field.
"Ehlinger, flushed out," came the call from Gus. "Ehlinger, throws … TOUCHDOWN TEXAS!"
The 17-yard scoring strike to Armanti Foreman was the cherry on top of a brilliant, 91-yard drive orchestrated by Ehlinger -- the young hero from Westlake High in Austin who wouldn't turn 19 for another two weeks. "Sam thrives under pressure," Texas head coach Tom Herman said this week. "Not just pressure, but the urgency of late-game scenarios."
Years ago, somewhere on the gridiron timeline between the T-formation and Tim Tebow, I played and coached the quarterback position. When I did, I swore by an unsophisticated mantra that I'm still convinced is the key to leading a team as a successful signal caller even today.
Quite simply: You better be the smartest guy on the field and the toughest guy on the field. If you are, your teammates will follow you into any fire and everything else will fall into place.
That night in 2017 at Southern Cal – and many times since – Sam Ehlinger checked both boxes.
"He's probably the best competitor in our league. The talent, I think speaks for itself, but a lot of things he does, a lot of plays he makes, it's almost like he kind of wills them. That's competitiveness," WVU co-defensive coordinator Jordan Lesley said.
But Ehlinger won't be the only quarterback on the Forty Acres Saturday -- or the only one forged under the Friday night lights of the Lone Star State.
Jarret Doege, who spent his final two years of high school as a Cooper Pirate, some six hours from Austin in Lubbock, has become the Rodney Dangerfield of Big 12 quarterbacks. All he does is show up and go to work -- with a lunch pail, tremendous field vision and an uncanny ability to stay focused in a chaotic pass pocket.
One of his greatest assets doesn't surface on paper -- his mental consistency. Doege's composure borders on stoicism. Whether he's in the locker room, on the sidelines or on the field, he's rarely too high or too low. For a guy directing a Big 12 offense, that personality trait often pays dividends in moments of crisis.
Last year at TCU, he shook off three interceptions in soggy Amon G. Carter Stadium to find Isaiah Esdale for a game-winning, 35-yard touchdown with 2:10 remaining. After throwing his second pick in the first 20 minutes of the game against Baylor a month ago at Milan Puskar Stadium, Doege regrouped to connect on 18 of his final 26 throws, including an overtime TD toss to Bryce Ford-Wheaton, while directing the WVU offense on 11 straight turnover-free possessions to end the game.
Study the coaches' video each week and this is what you've grown accustomed to with Doege. He demonstrates an uncommon willingness to trade bruises for opportunities, subjecting himself to body shots from defenders to buy his receivers the extra beat or two it sometimes takes to break open.
But toughness that teammates take note of comes in many forms. Sure, it means not flinching in the pocket, but as a quarterback it also means sometimes pointing out your own mistakes to deflect from those of others.
After a crushing loss to Texas Tech in front of family and friends in Lubbock, Doege was asked about the dropped balls that had plagued his receivers in that game and in preceding weeks. Not surprisingly, he responded with words that win over a locker room.
"I don't really have anything to say about the drops. I just tell them I'm coming right back to them, and I go love them up," he replied, after considering the question.
"I had my fair share of missed reads. That's like a drop for me. So I have to clean up some things before I can talk about other things."
That's 400-level leadership. I'm convinced it's also part of the reason his receivers responded a week later with their best game of the year against Kansas State.
Doege's not loud. He's not flashy. He's simply effective.
He's been quietly stringing solid performances together all season and along the way has become the Big 12's No. 2 ranked passer at 282 yards per game, 10th among Power Five quarterbacks. His showing against K-State marked his third consecutive game with 300-plus yards passing, putting him alongside Will Grier, Clint Trickett, Geno Smith and Marc Bulger as the only Mountaineers to accomplish that feat.
On Saturday, though, Doege will be trying to outduel a statistical juggernaut. Ehlinger, the media's preseason choice as the Big 12 Conference's first-team quarterback for the second straight year, has thrown for 10,520 career yards and 88 TDs against just 27 interceptions. Ehlinger appears at the top of his game as a passer under new offensive coordinator Mike Yurcich, a guy who has extracted the best from talented signal callers ranging from Mason Rudolph and Justin Fields to Harlan Hill Award winner Zach Zulli at Division II Shippensburg (Pa.).
What makes Ehlinger different, though, is his ability to hurt you with his legs. Not in the bust-one-for-75-yards kind of way. More in the grind-it-out-and-break-tackles-when-you-get-tired kind of way. Ehlinger has run the ball more than 500 times in his career, churning out 1,810 yards and 32 touchdowns (30 of which have come in the red zone – remember that when Texas gets in scoring range).
The Doege vs. Ehlinger angle is an interesting one, but this isn't a one-on-one prize fight or a Gentlemen's Singles match at Wimbledon. Doege will have plenty of help in his bid to outgun Ehlinger.
West Virginia's young crop of receivers are coming off their most complete game of the year, the offensive line continues to improve and the tight end position is becoming a Mountaineer fan favorite (all 13 of the combined catches by Mike O'Laughlin and T.J. Banks have come in the last four contests). Then there's Leddie Brown, the No. 11 rusher in the country (116 yards per game) and the Big 12 leader in 10-plus yard plays from scrimmage with 29 (22 rushing, seven receiving), giving Doege an asset that grows more dependable every week.
Doege will need to deploy all the weapons at his disposal to attack the Longhorns' new-look, even-front defense paced by the beastly Joseph Ossai. Just how disruptive was Ossai, battling through an injured shoulder en route to winning Walter Camp and Bronko Nagurski National Defensive Player of the Week honors for his role in the Texas victory at Oklahoma State last week (the Horns' first road win over a Top 10 team in a decade)? Remember the game Nebraska's Ndamukong Suh had against Texas in the 2009 Big 12 title bout – often regarded as one of the most dominant individual defensive efforts in the history of college football? Jeff Howe of Horns 247Sports points out that Ossai became the first Power Five player since that performance by Suh to rack up at least a dozen tackles, six tackles for loss and three sacks. Just for good measure in Stillwater, Ossai added two forced fumbles and one recovery. That's nightmare fuel, folks.
The Mountaineer defense, meanwhile, is currently allowing the fewest yards per play (4.21) by a Big 12 program since 2009 and ranks No. 4 nationally (256 yards per game). West Virginia --- which tops the Big 12 in total defense, passing defense (158 per game) and rushing defense (98 per game) -- plans to make Ehlinger earn what he gets.
In short, several factors will influence the outcome at Darrell K Royal - Texas Memorial Stadium on Saturday, but college football is nevertheless a QB-centric sport. As such, the odds are pretty good that a West Virginia win might require Doege one-upping Ehlinger in some key aspect of this game. What might that be?
Pop the hood on the analytics muscle car and you'll find Doege and Ehlinger neck-and-neck in a few key categories that might surprise you. Deep-ball production, for example, is one. CFBstats.com has Doege with 11 completions of 30-plus yards this year compared to Ehlinger's 12. Furthermore, according to the analysts at Pro Football Focus, on passes that travel 20-plus yards in the air, Doege has connected on 28.9%, Ehlinger 25.5%.
Two things are true when you're facing an offense as dynamic as the Longhorns (No. 1 in the Big 12 in scoring at 44.3 points per game). First, to keep pace you better come away with sixes instead of threes in the red zone and second, you can't afford to waste possessions.
That, of course, puts a premium on third-down conversions. Might Doege give the Mountaineers an edge there? Here it's worth further exploring the damage Ehlinger can do running the football. When you do, the numbers get scary. Ehlinger has used his legs to move the chains for Texas nine times on third down already this season and 58 times in his career. (Paging Tony Fields II)
But keep digging.
When Sam Ehlinger throws the football on third down, his completion percentage dips to 49.1 – worst among Big 12 starters. In contrast, Jarret Doege's third-down completion rate is 71.7%, highest among Big 12 starters and No. 6 among Power Five passers. Taking this a step farther, Ehlinger's overall passer rating on third down is just 108.8, No. 10 in the Big 12 and a full 55 points lower than Doege's 163.8, which ranks second in the conference.
Might this be the X-Factor West Virginia needs?
This isn't a recent phenomenon with either player. In fact, it's been a trend throughout their respective careers. In his 3½ years at Bowling Green and WVU, Doege's overall third-down passer rating stands at 155.9, his highest of any down. On the flipside, Ehlinger's composite third-down passer rating during his career at Texas is 129.9, his lowest of any down.
That's great, but has it really translated into an appreciable advantage for West Virginia so far this season compared to Texas? After all, the Mountaineers and Longhorns enter the game Saturday bumped up against each other in the Big 12 rankings in third-down success offensively at No. 5 (39.2%) and No. 6 (38.0%).
The key for WVU will be staying on schedule. Against a Texas defense that's No. 2 in the Big 12 in tackles-for-loss (8.5 per game), West Virginia won't just roll the dice and hope Doege works some kind of third-down magic. The goal will be to win on early downs and set the table with more manageable third downs of the intermediate variety (4-to-6 yards) or better. That's where the true advantage kicks in.
The numbers support this. Neal Brown has a call sheet full of options to choose from on third and 4-to-6 yard scenarios and Doege has made the most of them by throwing for a first down 53% of the time and completing 80% of his passes. In these 4-to-6 yard situations on third down, Doege's passer rating inflates to a chunky 238.2. That figure is No. 5 among FBS quarterbacks and the highest rating by a full-time Big 12 starter in that particular down and distance since at least 2009 (which is as far back as the CFBstats.com database tracks this category).
What contributes to Doege's success in these key situations? In short, quick thinking and quick throwing. Against the unbridled pass rush a quarterback often sees on third down, the faster he can make a decision and get rid of the football the better off he'll be. Doege does both.
"Really, really quick release. Gets the ball out extremely quickly," Herman said of Doege. "Very accurate. Can throw. I saw some throws he made against Kansas State that were 'wow' throws."
It will take some 'wow' throws Saturday too, but against a defense that feasts on turnovers (Texas leads the Big 12 with a dozen takeaways), it will also take some solid decision making to keep the ball out of harm's way. A little balance doesn't hurt on those critical third-down situations either. This is where Doege's backfield mate again proves valuable.
Among all FBS runners, Leddie Brown ranks No. 2 in yards gained on third down with 198 (just 5 yards behind Louisville's Javian Hawkins). Even more impressive has been Brown's third-down yards per carry: 9.4 – way up from last year's paltry 1.1.
At the end of the day, Neal Brown doesn't ask as much of his quarterback as Tom Herman asks of Ehlinger. Few coaches do. Part of that's because Ehlinger is such a uniquely gifted player. No matter how you defend him, he's sure to have his moments, just like he did that night at Southern Cal three years ago the first time I saw him play.
What I forgot to tell you was Texas lost that game in overtime. Saturday afternoon at DKR, I'll be on the West Virginia sidelines hoping for a similar outcome.
This time, with a mic in my hand but no Cheetle on my fingers.
Probably not, anyway.
I'll see you at the 50.
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