Photo by: All Pro Photography/Dale Sparks
Tony's Take: Going Inside the Numbers
November 02, 2018 09:00 AM | Football, Tony's Take
Tony's Take is a monthly sports column written by veteran West Virginia University play-by-play man Tony Caridi and is presented by West Virginia Tourism.
MORGANTOWN, W.Va. - What's it going to take for West Virginia to fly out of Austin, Texas, early Saturday evening with its biggest win of the season?
That's the question I've been pondering this week. Does Texas have a glass jaw, an Achilles heal, an unknown weakness that can be exploited?
Every team has something that takes it down. The question is what's Texas' Kryptonite? What statistic or combination of numbers is a constant when Texas has lost under second-year coach Tom Herman?
There's a little unwritten rule that says guys who don't work with statistics on a regular basis should not try to use them to make their point. With all due respect to the geek nation, thanks for the warning, but I'm jumping in headfirst.
Longhorns beat writer, Brian Davis, of the Austin American Statesman got me headed down this path when I asked him this week what WVU must do to beat Texas.
His reply was simple "Go fast."
"Go fast?" I asked. Davis said teams that crank off plays and don't allow the Texas defense to get comfortable have the best chance at success.
So (now is when the trouble begins) I started to do some research into the numbers to see if Davis is correct.
And, yes, he's right.
In a surprising, 34-29 loss to Maryland, the Terrapins ran 80 plays. In last Saturday's 38-35 loss to Oklahoma State, Texas saw the Cowboys snap off 85 plays.
A deeper dive into the combined eight losses over the last two seasons under Herman, shows teams that have beaten Texas average 77 offensive plays.
Ok, got it. West Virginia needs to have 77 snaps Saturday to get the win.
Unfortunately, 77 snaps are not an easily obtainable number for this year's Mountaineer offense. WVU is averaging less than 66 snaps per game.
Dana Holgorsen believes the most important stat in a football game is average yards per play. His belief holds true. Texas has lost the average yards per play category in seven of the eight losses it's suffered under Herman.
Holgorsen is not a huge time-of-possession believer. However, in five of eight losses Texas has lost that category.
If WVU does beat Texas, you can plan on the game being close. In six of Herman's eight losses, the margin of defeat has been by five or fewer points.
If none of these numbers get you excited then how about just old fashioned total points scored? In the eight losses, opposing teams average exactly 30 points per game. That's good news for a Mountaineer team that's currently averaging 40 points per game.
Can WVU crack 30 points on Saturday? Can it average more yards-per-play, accumulate more first downs, and win time of possession?
We have identified the ingredients. The question now is can the Mountaineers bring all the pieces together and keep themselves in line for a Big 12 Championship?
MORGANTOWN, W.Va. - What's it going to take for West Virginia to fly out of Austin, Texas, early Saturday evening with its biggest win of the season?
That's the question I've been pondering this week. Does Texas have a glass jaw, an Achilles heal, an unknown weakness that can be exploited?
Every team has something that takes it down. The question is what's Texas' Kryptonite? What statistic or combination of numbers is a constant when Texas has lost under second-year coach Tom Herman?
There's a little unwritten rule that says guys who don't work with statistics on a regular basis should not try to use them to make their point. With all due respect to the geek nation, thanks for the warning, but I'm jumping in headfirst.
Longhorns beat writer, Brian Davis, of the Austin American Statesman got me headed down this path when I asked him this week what WVU must do to beat Texas.
His reply was simple "Go fast."
"Go fast?" I asked. Davis said teams that crank off plays and don't allow the Texas defense to get comfortable have the best chance at success.
So (now is when the trouble begins) I started to do some research into the numbers to see if Davis is correct.
And, yes, he's right.
In a surprising, 34-29 loss to Maryland, the Terrapins ran 80 plays. In last Saturday's 38-35 loss to Oklahoma State, Texas saw the Cowboys snap off 85 plays.
A deeper dive into the combined eight losses over the last two seasons under Herman, shows teams that have beaten Texas average 77 offensive plays.
Ok, got it. West Virginia needs to have 77 snaps Saturday to get the win.
Unfortunately, 77 snaps are not an easily obtainable number for this year's Mountaineer offense. WVU is averaging less than 66 snaps per game.
Dana Holgorsen believes the most important stat in a football game is average yards per play. His belief holds true. Texas has lost the average yards per play category in seven of the eight losses it's suffered under Herman.
Holgorsen is not a huge time-of-possession believer. However, in five of eight losses Texas has lost that category.
If WVU does beat Texas, you can plan on the game being close. In six of Herman's eight losses, the margin of defeat has been by five or fewer points.
If none of these numbers get you excited then how about just old fashioned total points scored? In the eight losses, opposing teams average exactly 30 points per game. That's good news for a Mountaineer team that's currently averaging 40 points per game.
Can WVU crack 30 points on Saturday? Can it average more yards-per-play, accumulate more first downs, and win time of possession?
We have identified the ingredients. The question now is can the Mountaineers bring all the pieces together and keep themselves in line for a Big 12 Championship?
| Opponent | Year | Score | Plays | First Downs | Victory Margin | Average Play | Time of Possession |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maryland | 2018 | 34-29 | 80 | 21 | +5 | 5.1 yds | 32:46 |
| Oklahoma State | 2018 | 38-35 | 85 | 27 | +3 | 5.9 yds | 34:28 |
| Texas Tech | 2017 | 27-23 | 79 | 16 | +4 | 5.0 yds | 28:44 |
| TCU | 2017 | 24-7 | 73 | 17 | +23 | 4.7 yds | 33:24 |
| Oklahoma State | 2017 | 13-10 (OT) | 89 | 26 | +3 | 4.8 yds | 34:15 |
| Oklahoma | 2017 | 29-24 | 67 | 20 | +5 | 7.7 yds | 31:46 |
| USC | 2017 | 27-24 (2OT) | 88 | 25 | +3 | 5.3 yds | 27:14 |
| Maryland | 2017 | 51-41 | 58 | 18 | +10 | 8.3 yds | 29:44 |
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