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Oscar Tshiebwe
WVU Athletic Communications

Men's Basketball John Antonik

United Bank Playbook: An Analytical Look at Saturday’s K-State Game

MORGANTOWN, W.Va. – When it comes to analytics in sports, there are basically two camps of thought – those who consider it fish oil and those who shrug it off as snake oil.
 
In college basketball, Ken Pomeroy has sort of replaced Jeff Sagarin as the statistical guru for the sport and his $20-dollar-a-month subscription service seems to be the place where the hardcore basketball fans (and gamblers) are going to get information on their favorite teams.
 
I don't gamble so I don't need it for that purpose, but I do find some of Ken Pom's game breakdowns fascinating.
 
For example, his statistical data predicted a nine-point victory for Kansas when West Virginia played the Jayhawks in Lawrence on Jan. 4. 
 
The final score was Kansas 60, West Virginia 53, so that's really close.
 
However, the Ken Pom computers spit out an eight-point victory for the Mountaineers over TCU last Tuesday night, and the final margin was slightly off - West Virginia 81, TCU 49.
 
Fish oil or snake oil?

Who knows?
 
I do know a certain Big 12 beat writer covering another school who shows up on my Twitter timeline preaching Ken Pom like he's some sort of Marshall Applewhite. 
 
And Ken Pom is beginning to creep into our everyday sports vernacular just as points per game, assist-to-turnover ratio and rebounding margin have been for years. West Virginia's Bob Huggins was asked Friday morning about the Big 12's low offensive efficiency rating, which Ken Pom considers among the worst in college basketball this season.
 
Offensive efficiency, for those unfamiliar, is simply a measurement of points per possession.
 
"I don't have any idea," Huggins answered. "What do you think Virginia's offensive efficiency a year ago was? It couldn't be very much. They didn't score very many points. They just won."
 
As it turned out, Virginia's offensive efficiency rating was near the top of college basketball last season, primarily because of its style of play. The Cavaliers reduced the amount of possessions for themselves and their opponents, which made their rating much higher.
 
According to Ken Pom, the Big 12 team taking the longest to shoot the basketball this year is Baylor at 18.1 seconds per possession. Oklahoma has the quickest trigger at 15.7 seconds per possession.
 
Tomorrow's foes, West Virginia and Kansas State, are averaging 16.9 and 17.4 seconds per possession respectively.
 
Which is preferable, a team that reduces overall offensive possessions or gets more possessions than its opponent? 
 
I suppose that depends on what happens after the shot is taken. If you're West Virginia and you've got two offensive rebounders like Derek Culver and Oscar Tshiebwe, you may not be that efficient and still score enough to win. Put another way, would you rather your team score on 30 out of 45 offensive possessions or 31 out of 60 offensive possessions? 
 
"I think, to a degree, in our league we're not shooting it as quick as we once did so there are less possessions and when there are less possessions there are obviously going to be less points," Huggins noted.
 
Regarding tomorrow afternoon's game at Kansas State here are a few key Ken Pom numbers to consider:
 
Adjusted Offensive Efficiency
West Virginia, 49th, 107.1
Kansas State, 198th, 99.2
 
Adjusted Defensive Efficiency
West Virginia, 1st, 82.6
Kansas State, 54th, 92.9
 
Average Possession Length
West Virginia, 120th, 16.9 seconds
Kansas State, 193rd, 17.4 seconds
 
What does it mean? A lot or a little, depending upon your perspective.
 
"Ninety-nine percent of your fans don't have any idea about offensive efficiency," Huggins explained. "They say, 'Wow, man, we only scored 48 points.'"
 
It's not that Huggins is anti-analytics by any means because he looks at some of them occasionally. What he doesn't do is trust them more than his own two eyes.
 
"I would rather they bring me in clips of what they run and clips of their scores," he said.  "I want to see how they scored, I don't want to read about it. I want to know what they ran. 
 


"How did the guy get open? How did they create numbers?" he continued. "To me, that's way more valuable than somebody handing me a stack of papers."
 
The stack of papers I have sitting on my desk indicate Kansas State (7-9, 0-4) is averaging 64.5 points and is giving up 61.8 points per contest.
 
The Wildcats are shooting 41.7 percent from the floor and 32.3 percent from 3. They are making 66.6 percent of their free throw attempts and are getting beat on the glass by an average of 1.4 rebounds per game.
 
Four of K-State's last six losses have been by six points or less. And, Kansas State has lost its last two conference games to Texas and Texas Tech by 14 points each.
 
Huggins' take on the Wildcats is something 99 percent of college basketball fans can understand.
 
"They just haven't shot the ball well - and that happens," he said. "And, they're playing a bunch of young guys. They've lost a lot. You look at the people they've lost and they lost two of the best players who played there … maybe ever."
 
They didn't lose 6-5 senior forward Xavier Sneed, however. He's been a Mountaineer slayer throughout his career and a guy to keep an eye on Saturday afternoon. He's averaging a team-best 14.6 points and 5.0 rebounds per game.
 
"A really good player," Huggins said.
 
A 2 p.m. tipoff is slated for Saturday's game. ESPNU (Chuckie Kempf and Tim Welsh) will televise the contest nationally while MSN from Learfield IMG College's radio coverage will begin at 1 p.m. on stations throughout West Virginia and online via WVUsports.com and the popular mobile app WVU Gameday .
 
Kansas State won both games last year, the first by overcoming a 21-point first half deficit to defeat the Mountaineers 71-69 in Manhattan and downing West Virginia 65-51 a month later in Morgantown.
 
Overall, West Virginia owns a 10-7 record in series play.
 
 
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Players Mentioned

Derek Culver

#1 Derek Culver

F
6' 10"
Sophomore
Oscar Tshiebwe

#34 Oscar Tshiebwe

F
6' 9"
Freshman

Players Mentioned

Derek Culver

#1 Derek Culver

6' 10"
Sophomore
F
Oscar Tshiebwe

#34 Oscar Tshiebwe

6' 9"
Freshman
F