MORGANTOWN, W.Va. – So, what can we expect from Neal Brown's first football signing class at West Virginia University?
 
Based on the success Brown's predecessors had with their initial recruiting classes dating back to Jim Carlen in 1966, most likely a mixed bag.
 
Since then, the typical recruiting success rate for WVU's first-year coaches is about 45 percent, which entails players who actually contributed to the grid program over the course of their careers.
 
That number is to be expected, according to Greg Hunter of the Blue and Gold News. Coach Hunter has been following WVU recruiting since the early 1980s.
 
"Anything over 50 percent is acceptable," Hunter said. "Sixty percent is considered good."
 
"We better be better than (50 percent)," Brown said Wednesday. 
 
Using Hunter's 50-percent formula, Dana Holgorsen probably had the most productive signing class among first-year Mountaineer coaches over the last 50-plus years.
 
Twelve of the 18 recruits Holgorsen signed in 2011 eventually contributed to the program, including linebacker Nick Kwiatkoski, now playing for the Chicago Bears.
 
Holgorsen's other recruiting hits that year were linebackers Jared Barber, Isaiah Bruce and Shaq Petteway, running backs Andrew Buie and Dustin Garrison, tight end Cody Clay, offensive lineman Marquis Lucas, and defenders Terrell Chestnut, Kyle Rose and Shaq Rowell.
 
Of course, Holgorsen benefitted from being named "coach in waiting" before his promotion to head coach in the summer of 2011, which obviously gave him more time to assemble his first recruiting class.
 
The other Mountaineer coach to reach Coach Hunter's 50-percent threshold was Jim Carlen, whose 23-player harvest in 1966 featured several key performers on his 10-1 team in 1969 that defeated South Carolina in the Peach Bowl.
 
Carlen wasn't officially hired until late January 1966, yet despite the late start he was able to nab two outstanding prep players out of Virginia in Lynchburg's Carl Crennel and Midlothian's George "Duke" Henshaw.
 
Fifty-catch split end Oscar Patrick came from Big Creek High in the southern part of West Virginia, as did Mount Hope tackle Mickey Plumley, while Carlen also did well in the upper Ohio Valley where he was able to sign Ron Pobolish, Terry Snively and Marvin Six.
 
Grafton's Bob Starford was a contributor on the Peach Bowl team, as were Pennsylvanians Lewis Schooles and Eddie Silverio.
 
Offensive guard Wayne Brooks, from Decatur, Georgia, was another key member of Carlen's Peach Bowl squad.
 
In 1980, Don Nehlen brought in a 26-player class, of which he hit on 12 of them.
 
Steve Newberry and Tim Agee were mainstays in West Virginia's secondary, while linebackers Steve Hathaway, Jeff Deem, Ed Hughes, Dave Preston and Rich Walters were important contributors on Nehlen's nationally ranked Mountaineer defenses in the early 1980s.
 
Defenders Duane Jones and Lind Murray saw playing time as well.
 
On the other side of the ball, Nehlen landed three outstanding offensive contributors in center Bill Legg, offensive tackle Kurt Kehl and standout wide receiver Rich Hollins from Zanesville, Ohio.
 
These guys played on three consecutive bowl teams in 1981, 1982 and 1983.
 
Twenty-one years later, Rich Rodriguez matched Nehlen's success with his first signing class in 2001. 
 
Rich Rod was hired in late November 2000, giving him three months to piece together a 21-player haul that included Jahmile Addae (now on Neal Brown's WVU staff), tight end Josh Bailey, wide receivers Dee Alston and Miquelle Henderson, defensive back Anthony Mims and defensive tackle Ernest Hunter.
 
Two in-state products, Grafton's Travis Garrett and Gilbert's Garin Justice, formed the nucleus of WVU's offensive line in 2005 that helped the Mountaineers win the Big East and defeat Georgia in the 2006 Nokia Sugar Bowl.
 
Overall, Coach Rod hit on 43 percent of the players he signed in his first recruiting class.
 
Bill Stewart, Frank Cignetti and Bobby Bowden came in a little bit below that.
 
Coach Stew, who had his interim tag removed a day after beating Oklahoma in the 2008 Tostitos Fiesta Bowl, was nine-for-23 with his first signing class, which included future NFL performer Robert Sands.
 
In addition to Sands, place kicker Tyler Bitancurt, offensive linemen Jeff Braun, Josh Jenkins and Joey Madsen, tight end Tyler Urban, fullback Ryan Clarke, defensive lineman Jorge Wright and wide receiver J.D. Woods also became important contributors for the Mountaineers during their careers.
 
Cignetti had about two months to make up ground in 1976 when he was hired to replace Bobby Bowden, and his first recruiting haul included in-state prize Walt Easley, a Parade All-American from Charleston.
 


Easley played linebacker and fullback at WVU, and was also a member of San Francisco's first Super Bowl championship team in 1981.
 
Standout Potomac State defensive back Harold Woods, Aliquippa, Pennsylvania, wide receiver Cedric Thomas, cousins Billy and Reggie McLee from Uniontown, Pennsylvania, and offensive linemen Tobin Geatz and Jay Krohe were important contributors for the Mountaineers.
 
Bowden, named Carlen's successor shortly after he left for Texas Tech following the Mountaineers' 14-3 Peach Bowl victory over South Carolina, brought in 25 players in 1970.
 
Among them was record-setting halfback Kerry Marbury from Monongah, in-state standouts Wib Newton and Mike Nelson from the mid-Ohio Valley, and Weirton defensive back John Harcharic.
 
Newton, an athletic outside linebacker from New Martinsville, was pegged for stardom at WVU before suffering a career-ending knee injury in 1971.
 
St. Albans offensive lineman Dan Larcamp was the starting split tackle on West Virginia's 1972 Peach Bowl team, while Virginia split end Bernie Kirchner and South Carolina speedster Harry "Snake" Blake had some productive games for WVU.
 
Two of the most highly touted players from Bowden's first signing class – Hinton defensive end Billy Don Farley and St. Clairsville, Ohio, running back Jeff Rice, didn't quite pan out.
 
In a couple of years, we will get an opportunity to take stock of Brown's first WVU class, which now numbers 22 players with today's three additions - defensive lineman Jordan Jefferson, safety Rashean Lynn Jr. and cornerback Tavian Mayo. He also managed to preserve all 16 of Holgorsen's December signees.
 
"The truth of the matter won't be known for three, four years down the road," Brown said. "I think what you do is you have to have critical evaluations. What we do is we have a staff retreat in the spring and we evaluate the last three, four recruiting classes. Obviously, right now we will only have one so we won't have a lot of data, but you have to constantly evaluate what went right and what went wrong.
 
"I think you look at the geographic fit. You look if you take any at-risk (prospects), did it work out? What went wrong? But I think you have to constantly evaluate that and there is a science to it, without a doubt," he concluded.
 
What will the verdict be for Brown's first class at WVU?
 
Stay tuned.