Down the Stretch
October 16, 2009 09:55 AM | General
October 16, 2009
MORGANTOWN, W.Va. – With the regular season winding down for both West Virginia men’s and women’s soccer teams, it’s time to examine each of their NCAA Tournament résumés and find out what each squad needs to do to make their resumes more appealing to the selection committee
TopDrawerSoccer.com’s Robert Ziegler offers his opinion on both squads. He is in charge of compiling tournament rankings each Monday for the website. This week Ziegler has the men’s team at No. 26 and the women’s team at No. 35 in his most recent segment.
Mountaineer Women
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| Nikki Izzo-Brown |
Ziegler believes the Mountaineers are once again well-positioned for another NCAA Tournament bid, barring a complete collapse during the team’s remaining four regular season games as well as the conference tournament. WVU has an RPI of 46 and is tied atop the American Division of the BIG EAST with St. John’s, with both teams carrying a 4-2-1 conference mark.
Ziegler really likes WVU’s most recent victory over then-No. 11 Red Storm - a 1-0 triumph that always bodes well for a team’s postseason hopes when it occurs later in the season.
“I think it’s a good win for them,” Ziegler said. “If you go through and look at their schedule, I think what’s really important is that they don’t have a bad loss. It’s almost as important as some of their wins, although they do have some good wins. They’re on a good streak right now, winning three in a row. But I think they’ve done a real good job of avoiding losses to bad teams – the teams they have lost to have all been pretty good teams.”
West Virginia owns three wins over teams in the RPI top 50, including a road victory at Penn State (24) and home wins against St. John’s (32), and Marquette (50). WVU also defeated formidable Southeastern Conference opponent Tennessee (51) 1-0 at home and tied then-No. 9 Virginia (60) on the road.
“Beating Marquette was a good win. Beating Penn State (on the road) has become increasingly good because they’re turning things around and closing better and their record is going to be better,” Ziegler added. “Getting the BIG EAST wins that they’ve had is also good. I’d say Marquette and Penn State are the two best wins.”
Ziegler stresses that the RPI can only count for so much when formulating each team’s case for the postseason. Although it is the primary method used to factor every squad’s season-long body of work, he believes the committee is not just restricted to computerized formulas when finding the field’s top 64 teams.
“To me, the thing about the RPI is that it’s useful and valuable, and it’s the main thing they use. But I know that it’s not the only thing that the committee uses, and I’m glad to hear that because you need to have a certain human flexibility to use I think. That’s important.”
Taking the human element into account, the committee can look at the current point in the Mountaineer’s season and find that they are hitting their stride with a season-high three-game winning streak. Throw in the fact that the women’s squad has rattled off nine straight trips to the NCAA postseason and continues to move in the right direction, and those smaller tidbits can make a larger difference on selection day.
“The human flexibility should help people take a look at the history of the program, the direction that it’s going and the quality of soccer that’s being played,” Ziegler said. “You still want to finish strong in the road games coming up. I think all those things bode pretty well for Nikki and her team.”
Nonetheless, the Mountaineers have four make-or-break road matches to close out the regular season before the conference tournament. They start off with Villanova on Friday, then travel to Georgetown, which is receiving votes in the NSCAA poll, on Sunday. They play against Connecticut next Friday, which is one point behind WVU in the division, and end with Providence.
“Three of the remaining teams are really strong teams. It’s definitely a tough task to close with for sure,” Ziegler added. “The committee will talk about how they close. Certainly winning a couple games in the BIG EAST Tournament will be important.”
Mountaineer Men
With the field only 48 teams deep for the men’s tournament, it is always a tougher challenge for Coach Marlon LeBlanc and his team to land a postseason bid. But the 2006 Soccer America National Coach of the Year has brought his team beyond the BIG EAST Tournament twice in his first three seasons at West Virginia.
WVU carries an RPI of 55, with the first ratings being introduced last Tuesday. It sits fourth in the Blue Division with a 4-1-2 conference mark, and holds a 5-2-5 overall record after tying Southern Conference leader Elon 1-1 in Wednesday’s matchup.
“It’s always going to be a tougher proposition for the men because of the difference between 48 and 64,” Ziegler admitted. “I wouldn’t say they’re safe by any means, but they are certainly under consideration and they should be. The strongest thing about them, too, is that they don’t have a bad loss. I’m sure there are some draws they had where they felt they should have had wins, and that’s probably their biggest issue right now.”
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| Marlon LeBlanc |
In the beginning of the week, Ziegler put WVU at No. 26 in his tournament rankings on TopDrawerSoccer.com, a product of what has been a difficult schedule for the Mountaineers. WVU boasts a seven-match unbeaten streak, and owns key RPI victories over DePaul (18), USF (50) and at Cincinnati (58), while tying Connecticut (28).
With LeBlanc’s tremendous schedule strength, Ziegler also sees a couple of WVU’s losses as somewhat of an added benefit when assessing its tournament résumé.
“The two losses to Santa Barbara and Louisville are at least top 15 teams,” Ziegler said. “There really isn’t a loss by that, and on top of that, it’s the fact that ‘Oh by the way, they’re in the BIG EAST.’ They’ll definitely get more consideration because of that, but they definitely want to finish up well.”
WVU has a challenging schedule ahead, going on the road at Notre Dame, which is tied for second in the Blue Division, as well as Ohio State, which is receiving votes in the NSCAA poll. The Mountaineers also finish with another upper-tier BIG EAST team in Georgetown at home.
“The good thing for them is what they have in front of them is a pretty good opportunity to raise that ranking,” Ziegler said. “At 55 they are not safe, but they should feel like they’ve got their destiny in their own hands.”
Over the past two seasons, WVU has risen atop the national rankings for its defense. This season, the Mountaineers are seventh in the country in shutout percentage and tenth in goals against average through the latest NCAA rankings.
Asked whether its defensive superiority, especially having one of the country’s best goalkeepers in Zach Johnson, could be eye-catching for the committee, Ziegler pointed out that team statistics aren’t of vital importance, but offered his own take on what WVU could accomplish the rest of the way.
“I think where that plays a factor is the number of matches that have been draws this year could be wins in the tournament, because they are going to keep playing until there is a winner,” Ziegler said optimistically. “I can see West Virginia going all the way in the BIG EAST Tournament, for instance. That wouldn’t surprise me at all, because they are so good in the back. I don’t know if the committee will look at a lot of statistics when breaking it down. I think it will be more of whether those things can translate to wins later on.
“Since there are a smaller number of teams they will probably have to make a little bit more of an impression in order to make it.”
