Tony's Take is presented by West Virginia Tourism
As we head toward Saturday's Top 25 showdown between the Mountaineers and TCU, I'm putting my faith behind Count von Count to provide an accurate preview. The guy has been around long before today's tribes of analytic nouveau riche. He gets the numbers.
In fact, The Count first appeared on the scene in 1972 and his philosophy toward numerology still holds true today despite the advent of the spread offense. It goes like this: bigger number always wins and percentages foretell the future.
So here's what you need to know about WVU versus TCU:
Despite being rightfully heralded as one of the games top defensive minds, TCU's Gary Patterson has watched WVU score 30 or more points in four of five meetings since the teams joined the Big 12.
The most Mountaineer points (38) came in 2012 with Geno Smith at quarterback. The fewest points (10) came in WVU's last visit to Fort Worth on the final stop of four straight games against rated teams. TCU was ranked fifth and WVU was out of gas.
On the other side, TCU has scored more than 30 points in three of five Big 12 dates against WVU. The Frogs' biggest point total came in 2015 when Trevone Boykin threw and danced his way to a 40-10 victory.
The poorest TCU offensive showing came in Morgantown last season. Behind quarterback Kenny Hill, who will be at the controls Saturday, TCU scored just 10 points in a 34-10 loss. Hill threw for just 148 yards against a talented Mountaineer defense.
Now a year later, Hill is much improved; he's in the top 20 nationally in passing efficiency. The Mountaineer offense, behind quarterback Will Grier, comes to town second nationally in scoring and total offense and seventh in passing yardage. In his only other matchup against a nationally ranked team this season, Grier threw for 371 yards and three touchdowns in the 31-24 loss to Virginia Tech.
As for The Count's analysis, the numbers and percentages tell the story. Since 2000, WVU is 110-14 (88%) when scoring 30 or more points in a game and 56-4 (93%) when scoring more than 40.
So realistically how many points can a Mountaineer team currently averaging 49 points per game score against a TCU defense that's allowing just 19 per game? Any chance it could score 40 points? Is it possible to score 30?
What we do know is both teams had last weekend off and will be rested. WVU is hopeful that several injured players, including linebacker David Long Jr., will return. Can WVU's defense, currently ranked 114th out of 129 schools, slow a TCU running attack that's ranked 25th nationally? Will TCU's running attack significantly reduce the number of possessions for WVU's offense?
The two teams have taken turns winning lopsided games in each of the last two years, but the previous three games were decided by three points or less.
My man The Count says past performance does foretell the future and expects another classically close result between the Frogs and Mountaineers.
