Who Will the Media Pick?
July 30, 2010 03:04 PM | General
August 2, 2010
MORGANTOWN, W.Va. – On Tuesday the Big East Conference will reveal its preseason media picks for the 2010 football season. So which team will be selected No. 1?
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| Pitt's Dion Lewis ran for 1,799 yards and scored 17 touchdowns as a true freshman in 2009.
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The best guess here is Pitt will likely get the nod because of the Panthers' two big-time game breakers – sophomore running back Dion Lewis and junior wide receiver Jonathan Baldwin - and a defensive front four that ranks among the better ones in college football, with or without defensive end Jabaal Sheard.
The Panthers were actually the media favorites last year, outpolling both West Virginia and eventual winner Cincinnati before stumbling down the stretch against the Mountaineers in Morgantown and against the Bearcats at Heinz Field. Two years ago, West Virginia was the preseason pick but wound up finishing third, two spots behind league champion Cincinnati (tabbed fifth in the preseason).
In fact, only once since the Big East was forced to reconfigure in 2005 following the departures of Miami, Virginia Tech and Boston College has the preseason favorite gone on and won the title. That was West Virginia in 2007, although Connecticut was also able to buy rings that year with an identical 5-2 conference mark.
This summer many have become enamored with the talent coach Dave Wannstedt has assembled in Oakland, but those predicting a Panther BCS bowl game appearance in January are ignoring the fact that either unproven Tino Sunseri or career backup Pat Bostick will be in charge of the Panther offense. Still, Pitt should be quite formidable with four potential All-America candidates in Lewis, Baldwin, offensive tackle Jason Pinkston and defensive end Greg Romeus.
If Pitt is not it then it could be Connecticut, which is fielding its strongest team since moving up to the Division I ranks with 16 starters returning from last year's team that won eight games and saw its five losses come by a total of only 15 points. Veteran coach Randy Edsall has always relied on defense, but now he has a workhorse running back in Jordan Todman, a big, powerful offensive line for Todman to run behind, and two capable quarterbacks in Zach Fraser and Cody Endres, giving the Huskies much needed stability on offense heading into the 2010 season opener against Michigan.
Defending champion Cincinnati will also garner some first place consideration with a wide receiver corps as good as any in the country. New coach Butch Jones is hoping to chart a course similar to the one he took when he first followed Brian Kelly to Central Michigan in 2007 and led the Chippewas to a 27-13 record and a pair of first place MAC finishes.
With Kelly now in South Bend, Jones is taking over a UC program coming off a pair of BCS bowl appearances, albeit poor ones against Virginia Tech and Florida. Zach Collaros played well when he had an opportunity at quarterback last year, and he's got three big-time targets to throw to in Armon Binns, D.J. Woods and USC transfer Vidal Hazelton. Isaiah Pead is the best running back the Bearcats have had in years and he will undoubtedly keep defenses honest this fall. The big questions are on defense, where Cincinnati had trouble stopping air at the end of last season, giving up 49, 45 and 51 points in its final three games against Connecticut, Pitt and Florida.
West Virginia doesn't have quite as many concerns on defense as the Bearcats, but the Mountaineers are still somewhat of an enigma to outsiders and the Bill Stewart doubters. WVU has the most returning starters of any team in the conference (18), including one of the country's most explosive playmakers in running back Noel Devine, but a run at the league title will ultimately be determined by how quickly sophomore Geno Smith can get a handle on the quarterback position. If he avoids the big mistakes young QBs sometimes make and relies on the playmakers surrounding him - as well as a defense that returns nine of 11 starters - then the Mountaineers could find themselves back in a major bowl game for the first time since 2008.
South Florida, too, is sort of a mystery with new coach Skip Holtz taking over a program stocked with Florida skill players but missing five key defenders now playing in the NFL. Holtz does have someone to build his offense around in quarterback B.J. Daniels, who last year led the Bulls to a 17-7 upset victory over Florida State and assembled a pretty nifty highlight tape against West Virginia's secondary, but Holtz must develop a running game to complement his quarterback and find playmaking receivers to replace Carlton Mitchell and A.J. Love, who will likely be out for 2010 after tearing his ACL during spring drills.
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| Quarterback Zach Collaros passed for 1,434 yards and 10 touchdowns as a part-time starter in 2009.
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Rutgers has a non-conference schedule tailor made for wins (Norfolk State, Florida International, Tulane and Army) and possibly the best passing quarterback in the conference in sophomore Tom Savage, but there are questions along the offensive line and at wide receiver. The Scarlet Knights are also lacking a home run hitter at running back and must find replacements for five key defenders, including shutdown corner Devin McCourty, now in the NFL.
On the plus side, Rutgers has the most dynamic weapon in the Big East in wide receiver/Wildcat back Mohamed Sanu, who will once again be asked to catch, run and throw the football - perhaps all during the same play.
Up in Western New York, Syracuse is now in year two of Doug Marrone's rebuilding program. Last year the Orange showed progress by winning four games (the most since 2006) and they have 18 starters returning from that team. Marrone has most of his offensive line returning, a proven runner in Delone Carter (if he can stay out of Marrone's dog house), and an aggressive defense that returns eight starters from last year's unit that was the best in the Big East against the run. Sophomore Ryan Nassib, who last year came on in relief of Greg Paulus and threw for 120 yards and a pair of touchdowns against West Virginia, is projected to be the starting quarterback.
A lightened schedule that includes non-conference games against Akron, Washington, Maine, Colgate and Boston College could get Syracuse enough wins to return to a bowl game - something that wasn't even on the radar screens of Orange fans when Greg Robinson was still in the captain's chair running the ship aground.
Like Syracuse, Louisville is also in rebuilding mode with Charlie Strong, who is finally getting his first head coaching gig this fall. Strong has already made his presence felt on the recruiting trail and the most difficult choice he may face this season is whether or not to play some of his new recruits or redshirt them and build depth for the future.
Victor Anderson is a threat at running back, gaining 1,047 yards and scoring eight touchdowns as a freshman in 2007, but he carried the ball just three times in the final five games of '09 because of injuries. His return to good health is tantamount to any success Louisville will have offensively this year.
Doug Beaumont has caught a ton of balls during his three-year career but has yet to reach the end zone; former junior college All-America Adam Froman will likely be throwing the ball to Beaumont this fall.
Defense is where Strong made a name for himself at Florida, but he will need some time rebuilding a unit that ranked among the 20 worst in college football against the pass in 2009.
Here is how West Virginia has fared against the rest of the Big East since 2007:
Cincinnati (1-2)
2009: L, 21-24
2008: L, 23-26 (OT)
2007: W, 28-23
The Mountaineers have lost a pair of tight games to the Bearcats in 2008 and 2009 that ultimately elevated Cincinnati to the top of the Big East standings. In 2008, West Virginia couldn't move the ball against UC's stout defense despite holding the Bearcats to 260 yards of total offense. Still, WVU nearly snatched victory from the jaws of defeat by scoring 11 points in a span of a minute to send the game into overtime.
Last year, the game's replay official awarded Cincinnati a controversial touchdown that wound up being the difference in a 24-21 Bearcat victory. UC did most of its damage on the ground, though, running for 216 yards on only 30 attempts against the Mountaineers.
How about this for an odd-ball stat? In the last three meetings, Cincinnati has scored the most points (24.3) and averaged the most penalty yards (64) of any Big East team against West Virginia.
Connecticut (3-0)
2009: 28-24, W
2008: 35-13, W
2007: 66-21, W
West Virginia has fared well against Connecticut since the Huskies made the jump to Division I football (going 6-0 since 2004), but UConn has made steady progress against the Mountaineers, especially of late. After losing 66-21 in Morgantown in 2007 and 35-13 in Storrs in 2008, UConn battled West Virginia right down to the final gun in Morgantown in 2009. In fact, West Virginia needed a late 56-yard touchdown run from Noel Devine to pull out a 28-24 victory.
West Virginia has averaged more points (43), rushing yards (322) and total yards (449) versus the Huskies than against any other team in the conference since 2007. Conversely, Connecticut has also had success moving the ball against West Virginia, averaging 392.6 yards per game, including 244.3 yards through the air since 2007.
Louisville (3-0)
2009: 17-9, W
2008: 35-21, W
2007: 38-31, W
The Steve Kragthorpe years at Louisville were kind to West Virginia, the Mountaineers winning 38-31 in Morgantown in 2007, 35-21 in Louisville in 2008 and 17-9 in Morgantown last year.
But both games in Morgantown were nail-biters, including the one last year when a severely wounded Mountaineer team actually needed to use 240-pound defensive end Larry Ford at nose tackle to finish the game. A beat up Noel Devine carried just 13 times for 56 yards before heading to the sidelines, while quarterbacks Jarrett Brown and Geno Smith combined to pass for 100 yards in an all-around anemic offensive performance.
In its last three games against the Mountaineers, Louisville is averaging 22.6 completions and 39.7 pass attempts - the most of any Big East team against West Virginia since 2007. The two teams have also combined to average 14 penalties for 125 yards per game in their last three games.
Pitt (1-2)
2009: W, 19-16
2008: L, 15-19
2007: L, 9-13
You have to hand it to Dave Wannstedt, he has figured out a way to slow down West Virginia's high octane offense since helplessly watching his team try and catch Pat White and Steve Slaton during blowout losses to the Mountaineers in 2005 and 2006.
The tables turned in 2007 when 4-7 Pitt seemingly made every open field tackle in a 13-9 victory in Morgantown that eliminated the Mountaineers from national title contention. In 2008, West Virginia had a chance at redemption but blew an eight-point fourth quarter lead to lose 19-15 in Pittsburgh. Last year, a four-field goal performance from kicker Tyler Bitancurt helped West Virginia to a 19-16 victory over the then one-loss Panthers.
In its last three games against Pitt, West Virginia has failed to get more than 19 points and 18 first downs, plus, no Big East team has had more success running the football against West Virginia than the Panthers, who are averaging 164.7 yards and almost four yards per carry against the Mountaineers since 2007.
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| Rutgers wide receiver Mohamed Sanu is one of the most physically gifted players in the Big East this year.
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Rutgers (3-0)
2009: W, 24-21
2008: W, 24-17
2007: W, 31-3
The last two times these two teams met in Morgantown in 2008 and in Piscataway in 2009, the Knights couldn't capitalize on West Virginia's mistakes after it seemed like the Mountaineers had things well under control. In '08, West Virginia saw its two-touchdown lead evaporate late in the third quarter, and needed its defense to come up with a stop on its side of the field when the offense couldn't convert a fourth and one at midfield with a minute left in the game.
Last year, it looked like West Virginia was going to run and hide after Sidney Glover picked off a Tom Savage pass and returned it for a touchdown to give the Mountaineers a 21-3 lead early in the third quarter.
But then West Virginia had to kick off.
Joe Lefeged returned the ensuing squib kick 90 yards for a touchdown and the two-point conversion made it a 10-point game. A field goal got it to seven, and West Virginia's defense had to turn away Rutgers with 2:57 left in the game when J.T. Thomas intercepted a fourth-down pass. A bootleg run by quarterback Jarrett Brown on third and six at the Rutgers 42 enabled the Mountaineers to run out the clock.
Rutgers has had trouble moving the football against West Virginia, averaging just 267.4 yards in its last three losses to the Mountaineers. RU quarterbacks have also struggled, completing just 42 percent of their pass attempts while averaging two picks a game against West Virginia's secondary since 2007.
South Florida (1-2)
2009: L, 19-30
2008: W, 13-7
2007: L, 13-21
South Florida, like Pitt, has had enough skilled athletes on defense to track down West Virginia in the open field and keep the Mountaineers from producing big plays. West Virginia’s longest scoring play from the line of scrimmage against South Florida's defense since 2007 was a 12-yard trick play to tight end Tyler Urban in 2008. WVU's other three touchdowns against USF's defense covered 3, 7 and 11 yards.
That's it.
Because the Mountaineers have not been able to consistently run the ball against USF's front four they have had to try more passes (34.2 per game since 2007) against the Bulls than against any other team in the league.
Meanwhile, South Florida has run (155.7 ypg.) and thrown the ball (169.3 ypg.) just enough to win two of its last three games against the Mountaineers, with an opportunity for a third win in Morgantown in 2008 ending with an incomplete pass in the end zone late in the game.
Syracuse (3-0)
2009: W, 34-13
2008: W, 17-6
2007: W, 55-14
West Virginia has enjoyed a pair of blowout wins sandwiched between a tough, 17-6 victory over Syracuse in Morgantown in 2008 that required a Noel Devine 92-yard touchdown run with 4:16 remaining in the game to seal the deal. Leading 10-6, West Virginia had to turn away Syracuse at its own eight when coach Greg Robinson chose to go for out on fourth and goal instead of kicking a short field goal to pull the Orange within one.
The Mountaineers played that game with junior quarterback Jarrett Brown under center after Pat White was held out for the concussion he sustained against Rutgers the week prior.
Last year in the Carrier Dome, West Virginia jumped on Syracuse early and took a 27-0 lead into the locker room at halftime. Jarrett Brown threw for 244 yards and Noel Devine added 91 yards on the ground against a stout Syracuse run defense.
Since 2007, Syracuse has averaged only 11 points, 13.7 first downs, 101.7 rushing yards and 256.7 total yards per game against the Mountaineer defense.
