3rd Year Wonders
July 30, 2007 11:24 AM | General
July 30, 2007
By Tony Caridi for MSNsportsNET.com
July 30, 2007
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| Patrick White |
MORGANTOWN, W.Va. -- Chances are you’ve never heard of Leonardo Fibonacci, but it’s a wonderful thing that the greatest mathematician of the middle ages did what he did. Ole Leo was among the first to introduce the Hindu-Arabic number system in Europe.
Without Leonardo sports fans would have a completely different language when it came to statistics. Barry Bonds would be chasing Hank Aaron’s all-time home run record of DCCLV. We would know Joe DiMaggio’s hitting streak to be XVI games long.
Fibonacci ditched Roman numerals and for that we say thank you.
All of this is offered to you as a bit of insight as we dive into the numbers of a recent question that flashed through my mind. With Patrick White about to begin his third season as WVU’s starting quarterback (we’re counting his first year in 2005 as a co-starter with Adam Bednarik) will this be his best season?
Hypothesis: Are third-year starting quarterbacks at West Virginia University statistically better when compared to their first two seasons on the job?
Let’s meet the contestants.
Since 1950 there have been eight quarterbacks that have started three consecutive seasons. Fred Wyant (1952-55) was the only four-year starter. Three-year starters include Wyant, Mike Sherwood, Dan Kendra, Oliver Luck, Major Harris, Chad Johnston, Marc Bulger (whatever happened to him?) and Rasheed Marshall.
Five of the signal callers (Sherwood, Kendra, Luck, Harris, and Marshall) all established career bests in their third season as a starter. Wyant, Johnston, and Bulger all experienced career lows in passing in their third season as starters. However, Wyant established career marks rushing the ball and Bulger battled injuries throughout his third year under center.
So what does history show us? Over the last 56 years at West Virginia, third-year starters have a 62 percent chance (five of eight) of posting their best passing numbers. Among rushing quarterbacks (Wyant, Harris, and Marshall) each posted their career bests in their third season as the starter.
And so that means?
If the numbers hold true, Patrick White has a 62 percent chance of throwing for more than the 1,655 yards he threw for last season and a 100 percent chance to rush for more than 1,219 yards he recorded.
Numbers are a great thing and we do tip our cap to Leonardo Fibonacci for his wonderful accomplishment, but knowing Patrick White, the only number that matters is how many wins the Mountaineers will record this season.
