Wild, Wild East
February 18, 2007 09:22 PM | General
February 18, 2007
MORGANTOWN, W.Va. – So, has West Virginia done enough to get into the NCAA tournament if it can get one more regular season victory, or does it have additional work to do? Well, it really depends on how you look at things.
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| Despite owning a home win over UCLA, freshman Da'Sean Butler and his West Virginia teammates still have some work to do to get into the NCAA tournament.
AP photo |
Last year, WVU had 19 Division I victories heading into the NCAA tournament and an RPI of 38 according to CollegeRPI.com, which employs a formula very similar to what the NCAA selection committee uses. The Mountaineers’ strength of schedule rating was 23rd with impressive non-conference wins over Oklahoma and UCLA to go with an 11-5 league record. West Virginia got into the tournament as a six seed.
Two years ago in 2005, West Virginia had a slightly better RPI of 34 after its impressive Big East tournament run, but was an even 8-8 in league play and had a strength of schedule rating of 50. The Mountaineers wound up being a No. 7 seed.
This year, West Virginia (20-6) is presently 49th after Saturday’s victory over Seton Hall with regular season games remaining against No. 65 Providence, No. 4 Pitt and No. 162 Cincinnati. West Virginia, with a strength-of-schedule rating of 102, is 8-5 in the Big East and can assure itself of another winning record in conference play with one more win.
“You look at the history of the Big East conference and eight wins is a pretty good year,” said West Virginia coach John Beilein.
But the Big East is in a conundrum. The league is perceived to be weaker this year (ranked fifth overall), yet the conference has five teams currently in the RPI Top 50 led by No. 4 Pitt, with Georgetown (No. 17) and Villanova (No. 18) in the Top 20. Marquette is presently No. 31 after Saturday’s loss to Louisville.
The ACC has the most RPI Top 50 teams with nine, followed by the Pac 10 and the SEC with six each. Overall, the SEC is rated No. 1, followed by the ACC, the Pac 10 and the Big Ten.
Yet the Big East has five teams between 51 and 65 in the RPI rankings: No. 53 Louisville, No. 54 Notre Dame, No. 57 DePaul, No. 63 Syracuse and No. 65 Providence. No other league has that many teams that closely bunched together in the middle.
“I think the Big East is a really good league, and really competitive this season,” ESPN college basketball analyst Jay Bilas told the Charleston Daily Mail last week. “It’s just not quite where it was last year.”
Because of that perception – right or wrong, teams like Marquette, West Virginia, Notre Dame, Louisville, Villanova, Syracuse -- and even DePaul and Providence -- could be sweating it out on Selection Sunday.
Two weeks ago Marquette appeared to be an NCAA lock with a 21-4 record, but three straight conference losses to Georgetown, DePaul and Louisville have brought the Golden Eagles back to Earth. It is possible that Marquette could lose its remaining three games against Villanova, Notre Dame and Pitt to end the regular season on a six-game losing steak.
West Virginia’s three best wins have come against No. 1 UCLA, No. 18 Villanova and No. 57 DePaul. On the other side, the Mountaineers have a road loss at No. 162 Cincinnati. Many believe the UCLA triumph is West Virginia’s golden win, but detractors will point to the fact that the Bruins were without their starting point guard for the game.
Notre Dame (20-6) has wins over No. 18 Villanova, No. 23 Alabama, No. 26 Maryland and No. 49 West Virginia, but a loss to No. 171 South Florida.
Louisville (19-8) doesn’t possess a marquee non-conference victory but has impressive recent Big East road wins over Pitt and Marquette.
Villanova (18-8) is .500 in Big East play and has victories outside of the conference against Oklahoma and Texas; Villanova’s key Big East wins are against Georgetown, Notre Dame and Louisville.
Syracuse’s best Big East victories have come against Marquette and Villanova, but the Orange lost both of its key non-conference games against Wichita State and Oklahoma State. The Orange (19-8) have three tough league games remaining at Providence, at home against Georgetown, and on the road at Villanova.
DePaul is not out of contention with a 16-11 record mainly because the Blue Demons have played the 16th most difficult schedule in the country and have wins over Kansas, Cal, Notre Dame and Marquette.
DePaul has winnable games remaining against Notre Dame, Cincinnati and South Florida which could put the Blue Demons at 19 victories.
Providence (16-9) could get to 20 wins if it sweeps its remaining league games against West Virginia, Syracuse, South Florida and St. John’s: the West Virginia and Syracuse games will be played at the Dunkin Donuts Center.
Connecticut is still an option with 16 wins, but the Huskies are 5-7 in Big East play with games remaining against Rutgers and Georgetown on the road, and at home against Louisville and Villanova. St. John’s (15-12) is not entirely out of it either, but the Red Storm have a long road yet to travel.
If things fall right there could be as many as 11 Big East teams with at least 19 wins going to New York City for the conference tournament, meaning 11 of the 12 have a legitimate shot of playing their way into the NCAA tournament.
What other conference can claim that?
Historically, 19 regular season victories have usually been enough for Big East teams to get into the Dance. Since 1994 when Jerry Palm of CollegeRPI.com began doing his ratings, Big East teams with single-digit losses and RPIs better than 50 have fared well on Selection Sunday.
Last year, No. 40 Cincinnati was the highest rated Big East team not to make the field of 65, mainly because the Bearcats had an 18-12 record and the league got seven teams into the tournament.
Since 1994, the only instance when a Big East team with an RPI better than 50 and having single-digit losses didn’t get into the NCAA tournament was in 1997 when 19-9 West Virginia was left out.
The Mountaineers that year had an RPI of 49 and a strength-of-schedule ranking of 78. West Virginia had victories over No. 8 Villanova, No. 33 Boston College and No. 46 Providence – all at home.
WVU’s worst loss in 1997 was at No. 121 Rutgers.
Some believe West Virginia can make it to the Big Dance this year with one more win, making the Mountaineers 20-8 heading into the Big East tournament.
Others think two is the magic number. If that’s the case then West Virginia will have to upset either Providence or Pitt on the road, or win its Big East tournament first round game (assuming it beats 10-16 Cincinnati at home on March 3rd).
Stay tuned in the wild, wild East.
