Sexy Stats
November 14, 2007 11:46 AM | General
November 14, 2007
MORGANTOWN, W.Va. - You have no idea how hard I wanted to come up with some sexy stat this week about West Virginia and Cincinnati that would just blow you away. I thought if I really dug deep into the numbers I could reveal some mind-blowing trend that would leave you breathless and would foreshadow what will transpire in the Queen City on Saturday night.
Well, I did find the stat but it’s about as sexy as burlap. Sorry, but there’s just no way you can make turnover margin exciting. However, in reality that’s what this Mountaineer versus Bearcat encounter is all about.
The team that fumbles will crumble, the team that holds will win the gold Big East Conference championship trophy.
Wish I had more to offer, but as the great American actor Porky Pig was apt to say: “Tha-Tha --- That’s all folks.”
Let me provide some facts to show you that I’m just not taking the easy way out.
Cincinnati has lost two games this season. The Bearcats fell at home to Louisville because the Cardinals forced Cincinnati into four turnovers and the Cards didn’t cough it up once. One week later, Pittsburgh had one turnover but forced the Bearcats into three.
Coach Brian Kelly’s squad has defeated South East Missouri State, Oregon State, Miami-Ohio, Marshall, Rutgers and South Florida by winning the turnover battle. The Bearcats beat Connecticut last Saturday although the turnover margin was even at one apiece. The only game Cincinnati has won despite losing the turnover battle was against San Diego State and the Aztecs have a losing record.
This theme also holds true for West Virginia. The only blemish on the Mountaineers’ record came when it vomited six turnovers at South Florida. This may be one of the few games in which the in-game turnover statistics are more prophetic than the in-game score.
A few other notes of interest about Saturday’s game include the unorthodox play calling nature of UC coach Brian Kelly. Opposing teams build defensive game plans based on another team’s tendencies. Cincinnati does a wonderful job of not really having tendencies. When you expect them to run they’ll pass and when you expect them to pass they’ll run.
If you haven’t watched Cincinnati quarterback Ben Mauk yet, you’ll likely draw a comparison to South Florida’s Matt Grothe. Both can beat you with their arm and legs. WVU should benefit from already having played Grothe - after a tough first half, the Mountaineers contained the USF quarterback while holding the Bulls to seven second half points.
In addition to turnovers and quarterback play, keep a close eye on the big play. The Mountaineers were held to 13 first downs in last season’s game against Cincinnati.However, West Virginia used Steve Slaton runs of 65 and 63 yards. Slaton finished the game with 148 yards on just 12 carries. In two games against the Bearcats, Slaton has romped for 277 yards and six touchdowns on 37 carries. If Super Steve can maintain a career 7-yard average per carry against UC, life will be very good for the Mountaineers.
Patrick White has also posted nice digits in two dates with the ‘Cats. Pat has navigated for 204 yards on 18 totes, with two touchdowns and two passing scores with no interceptions.
Like the financial commercials say, past history does not guarantee future performance. However, all signs point to turnovers deciding who walks off the field with the win and likely the Big East title on Saturday night.
